Forecasting Humanitarian Supply Needs with Artificial Intelligence

  • Institution Country: Netherlands
  • Implementation Country: South Sudan
  • Sector: Life Saving Information
  • Funding Stage: Proof of Concept

Camp Forecast: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Supply Chain Forecasting

By Stichting Elva

Annually, $1.3 billion of humanitarian aid funding is wasted due to outdated supply management practices in refugee camps. As a result, nearly 2 million children, women and men cannot be provided with essential humanitarian supplies. These vulnerable people are not currently receiving the life-saving humanitarian aid they need. Better implementation and demand forecasting is urgently needed within refugee and displacement camps.


Stichting Elva seeks to pilot their award-winning Artificial Intelligence-driven “Camp Forecast” tool, which helps camp managers to make faster and more accurate demand forecasts, saving up to 7% of operation costs. The Camp Forecast tool is an AI-driven demand forecasting tool developed for humanitarian settings to enable faster, more accurate, and cost effective supplies management. Camp Forecast uses proven, light touch methods to forecast the number and type of residents predicted to be in the camp at any point in the short to middle-long term, and the number and types of humanitarian supplies needed. Camp Forecast is the first AI-driven demand forecasting tool developed for humanitarian settings, which will allow for the distribution of life-saving humanitarian aid, including medication, blankets, tents and food, to people fleeing from conflict. This project will be especially beneficial for children, pregnant women, and people living with disabilities or special needs – who are most vulnerable and dependent on humanitarian supplies within camp settings.